A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
